At least it’s not Friday the 13th—but on March 13, the U.S. will reach its Overshoot Day for the year 2025.
What is this Overshoot Day?
If everyone in the world lived like U.S. residents, humanity would have exhausted its annual ecological budget by March 13. For the remainder of the year, we would be depleting the planet’s resources faster than they can regenerate. March 13 is one of the earliest dates on the Overshoot Calendar, highlighting the disproportionate ecological footprint of the United States.
The U.S. is fortunate to be endowed with abundant regenerative resources—what we call biocapacity. Per person, it has more than twice the global average of these resources. Yet, despite this wealth, U.S. demand still surpasses what its ecosystems can sustainably provide. At its current rate of consumption, the country would deplete its entire annual regenerative resource budget by the end of June—within just six months. This is its Deficit Day. It’s important to note that some of this biocapacity is also essential for sustaining wildlife.
Both Country Overshoot Day and Deficit Day are critical because they reveal different facets of the same story: our relationship with the regenerative resources that underpin all economic activity. The planet’s regenerative capacity defines the limits of sustainable consumption—whether it’s food, fiber, timber, or even fossil fuels. Fossil fuel use, for instance, is constrained not by the amount of oil or coal remaining underground, but by the biosphere’s ability to absorb carbon emissions. Similarly, mining is limited not by the availability of minerals, but by how much of the biosphere we are willing to sacrifice for extraction and processing.
Why does it matter?
Ignoring resource security and pretending ecological overshoot doesn’t exist leads to self-defeating decisions. It channels investments into assets that will have little utility—and therefore little value—in the future we can already foresee.
This makes this year’s U.S. Overshoot Day particularly significant. Like most nations, the U.S. lacks robust resource accounting systems. Compounding this issue, the current administration is actively dismantling the scientific capacity of government agencies tasked with tracking climate and resource trends. At the same time, it is discouraging a transition away from fossil fuel dependence, further undermining the country’s long-term resilience. Clinging to resources with a shrinking future means investing in infrastructure that will become increasingly obsolete in a world shaped by climate change and resource constraints.
Ironically, the administration claims to prioritize environmental quality. In his March 4 speech to Congress, the president emphasized his commitment to improving air and water quality. Yet, simultaneously, his administration has proposed a 65% budget cut to the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the very body responsible for safeguarding air and water. Additionally, there is a strong push to roll back environmental regulations, many of which are designed to protect public health and ecosystems. The administration has also been vocal about its support for fossil fuels and its resistance to renewable energy development.
What can you do?
Ultimately, the winners in a future shaped by climate change and resource constraints will be those who recognize the reality of these challenges and strategically direct their investments toward opportunities that will retain long-term value. This approach not only provides a roadmap for sustained prosperity but favors those who proactively prepare for the predictable shifts ahead.
Recognizing the realities of climate change and resource constraints is therefore not pessimistic—it’s empowering. With the right tools and mindset, we can build a robust and thriving future. As we’ve outlined through our “Power of Possibility” platform, the greatest economic opportunities lie with those ventures that create value while reducing global overshoot.
Here’s what you can do: Whenever you get caught in a conversation about climate change or the futility of environmental action, try this. Turn it into an inquiry. Ask your counterparts what kind of assets they believe are more likely to gain in value, and examine with them how that outcome will that be shaped by the trends of more climate change and increasing resource constraints. In other words, as cities, companies and countries invest in their development, which bets are more likely to be successful?
The good news is that we do not need to wait for others. Each household, city, company, or country can choose their own bets.
What’s not to like? Let’s build a thriving future.